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The list of observation chances for stellar occultation by Apophis

Apophis has been selected as the first flyby target for the DESTINY+ mission (the second target is Phaethon). Apophis will make its closest approach to Earth in April 2029 and is attracting significant attention from the public and researchers. Several exploration missions are planned. DESTINY+ is expected to be the first of these missions to perform a flyby of Apophis, which is planned for February 2029. To plan the flyby, we must conduct occultation observations before February 2029 to determine Apophis's orbit and precise size. This information is necessary for the DESTINY+ flyby observation strategy (approach distance, observation angle at closest approach, etc.). We have therefore investigated occultation observation opportunities between now and the end of January 2029.

 

As shown in the list below, there are no observation opportunities in the coming years, but there will be opportunities starting in 2028. From January 2028 to the end of January 2029, there will be 60 opportunities worldwide, seven of which will be observable from Japan.

As noted below, stellar occultations by Apophis have been observed in the past. At that time, the duration of the dimming was approximately 0.1 seconds for each event. Even with a 0.1-second duration, the observation was challenging. However, with the upcoming observation opportunities starting in 2028, the duration of the dimming will be reduced to 0.01 seconds, making the observation even more challenging. Nevertheless, with a large-aperture telescope equipped with a high-speed readout and a high-sensitivity CMOS camera, could make the observation possible!

 

The prediction below is based on data up to July 2025, so Apophis's orbit may change by 2028, which could alter the observation opportunity. As the 2028 observation opportunity approaches, we will provide the most accurate prediction available.

 

No.       Date                   Time                           Star name            RUWE  Mag.    Mag.    Dur. Uncertainty            Distance      Fresnel       Area    
            (UT)                    (UT)                                                                   (V)       (R)      (sec)   (sec)     Shadow  from the      number

                                                                                                                                                            velocity     Earth

                                                                                                                                                             (m/sec)      (km)

00 | 2027-04-21 | 11h 13m - 11h 19m | UCAC4 554-021042      | 1.20  | 10.6 |  09.8  | 0.020 |           |            |                 |         | Japan               

01 | 2028-01-02 | 13h 00m - 13h 14m | UTUCAC4 404-000176  | 0.95  | 12.2 | 11.67 | 0.010 | 0.040 | 14454 | 44101452 | 0.85 | China, Japan

02 | 2028-01-10 | 14h 39m - 14h 55m | UTUCAC4 426-001125  | 1.25  | 11.4 | 10.97 | 0.011 | 0.043 | 13905 | 45447833 | 0.83 | Thai        

03 | 2028-01-10 | 12h 39m - 12h 52m | UT UCAC4 426-001114 | 1.10  | 13.6 | 12.88 | 0.011 | 0.043 | 13911 | 45432873 | 0.83 | China           

04 | 2028-01-13 | 18h 18m - 18h 31m | UT TYC 4681-02316-1   | 0.85  | 11.6 | 11.22 | 0.011 | 0.044 | 13680 | 46300541 | 0.81 | EU                

05 | 2028-01-14 | 14h 43m - 14h 56m | UTTYC 4682-00516-1    | 0.90  | 12.0 | 11.48 | 0.011 | 0.045 | 13621 | 46569817 | 0.81 | Mid Asia      

06 | 2028-01-20 | 02h 32m - 02h 46m | UTUCAC4 451-002232  | 1.20  | 12.3 | 11.60 | 0.011 | 0.048 | 13262 | 48499630 | 0.77 | USA            

07 | 2028-01-26 | 11h 21m - 11h 37m | UTUCAC4 467-003011  | 0.95  | 13.6 | 12.98 | 0.012 | 0.052 | 12918 | 51237271 | 0.73 | China, Japan

08 | 2028-01-26 | 03h 09m - 03h 25m | UTUCAC4 466-003007  | 1.10  | 13.1 | 12.40 | 0.012 | 0.052 | 12934 | 51072713 | 0.73 | USA            

09 | 2028-02-04 | 15h 25m - 15h 42m | UTUCAC4 486-004147  | 1.20  | 12.1 | 11.27 | 0.012 | 0.058 | 12561 | 55874805 | 0.67 | Thai             

10 | 2028-02-05 | 05h 13m - 05h 29m | UTUCAC4 487-004365  | 1.05  | 13.1 | 12.44 | 0.012 | 0.059 | 12543 | 56188960 | 0.67 | USA              

11 | 2028-02-19 | 21h 40m - 21h 56m | UTUCAC4 512-006229  | 1.05  | 12.8 | 11.94 | 0.012 | 0.069 | 12338 | 64716039 | 0.58 | EU                

12 | 2028-02-20 | 05h 13m - 05h 28m | UTUCAC4 512-006280  | 1.05  | 13.3 | 12.55 | 0.012 | 0.069 | 12340 | 64910516 | 0.58 | USA              

13 | 2028-02-23 | 00h 35m - 00h 50m | UTUCAC4 516-007323  | 0.95  | 11.7 | 11.07 | 0.012 | 0.071 | 12361 | 66630892 | 0.56 | South America

14 | 2028-02-26 | 11h 10m - 11h 23m | UTUCAC4 520-007868  | 1.00  | 12.5 | 11.52 | 0.012 | 0.073 | 12408 | 68755181 | 0.55 | AUS                

15 | 2028-03-11 | 12h 59m - 13h 15m | UTUCAC4 534-011745  | 1.10  | 12.1 | 11.26 | 0.012 | 0.080 | 12738 | 77401938 | 0.48 | China         

16 | 2028-03-13 | 10h 06m - 10h 22m | UTUCAC4 536-013164  | 1.15  | 12.6 | 12.08 | 0.012 | 0.080 | 12796 | 78538882 | 0.48 | Japan           

17 | 2028-03-13 | 01h 22m - 01h 34m | UTUCAC4 535-012750  | 1.10  | 13.9 | 13.36 | 0.012 | 0.080 | 12784 | 78314485 | 0.48 | South America

18 | 2028-03-16 | 10h 36m - 10h 52m | UTUCAC4 538-015011  | 0.85  | 13.6 | 12.96 | 0.012 | 0.082 | 12898 | 80334057 | 0.47 | Japan

19 | 2028-03-17 | 10h 32m - 10h 42m | UTUCAC4 539-015548  | 1.00  | 12.9 | 12.05 | 0.012 | 0.082 | 12935 | 80917488 | 0.46 | AUS

20 | 2028-03-19 | 12h 31m - 12h 48m | UTUCAC4 540-017225  | 0.95  | 10.9 | 10.46 | 0.012 | 0.083 | 13015 | 82129231 | 0.46 | China

21 | 2028-03-19 | 13h 58m - 14h 14m | UTUCAC4 540-017258  | 1.40  | 12.9 | 12.38 | 0.012 | 0.083 | 13017 | 82174110 | 0.46 | China, Taiwan

22 | 2028-03-22 | 00h 55m - 01h 08m | UTUCAC4 541-018802  | 1.00  | 13.6 | 13.04 | 0.011 | 0.083 | 13118 | 83580330 | 0.45 | South America

23 | 2028-03-25 | 22h 45m - 23h 00m | UTUCAC4 543-022004  | 1.00  | 12.1 | 11.51 | 0.011 | 0.085 | 13287 | 85779419 | 0.44 | North Africa

24 | 2028-03-25 | 20h 23m - 20h 38m | UTUCAC4 543-021954  | 1.00  | 13.6 | 13.15 | 0.011 | 0.084 | 13283 | 85734540 | 0.44 | EU

25 | 2028-03-25 | 03h 36m - 03h 50m | UTUCAC4 543-021493  | 1.00  | 13.6 | 12.85 | 0.011 | 0.084 | 13252 | 85345585 | 0.44 | USA

26 | 2028-03-26 | 13h 40m - 13h 55m | UTUCAC4 544-021484  | 1.00  | 13.8 | 13.30 | 0.011 | 0.085 | 13314 | 86123494 | 0.44 | China

27 | 2028-03-26 | 11h 41m - 11h 56m | UTUCAC4 544-021461  | 1.00  | 13.8 | 13.20 | 0.011 | 0.085 | 13311 | 86078615 | 0.44 | Japan

28 | 2028-03-27 | 11h 35m - 11h 50m | UTUCAC4 544-021742  | 1.00  | 13.9 | 13.39 | 0.011 | 0.085 | 13355 | 86632127 | 0.43 | Japan

29 | 2028-03-27 | 15h 57m - 16h 12m | UTUCAC4 544-021820  | 1.05  | 13.2 | 12.15 | 0.011 | 0.085 | 13363 | 86721886 | 0.43 | Mid Asia

30 | 2028-03-29 | 15h 28m - 15h 43m | UTUCAC4 545-023310  | 1.05  | 13.5 | 12.96 | 0.011 | 0.085 | 13452 | 87798990 | 0.43 | Hong Kong

31 | 2028-04-02 | 22h 40m - 22h 52m | UTUCAC4 546-026969  | 0.90  | 12.2 | 11.72 | 0.011 | 0.086 | 13641 | 90027999 | 0.42 | South America

32 | 2028-04-04 | 20h 59m - 21h 13m | UTUCAC4 547-028160  | 1.20  | 12.8 | 12.66 | 0.011 | 0.087 | 13722 | 91000385 | 0.41 | EU

33 | 2028-04-05 | 18h 44m - 18h 59m | UTUCAC4 547-029041  | 1.00  | 13.7 | 13.33 | 0.011 | 0.087 | 13760 | 91449178 | 0.41 | North Africa

34 | 2028-04-05 | 14h 16m - 14h 30m | UTUCAC4 547-028850  | 0.95  | 12.0 | 11.42 | 0.011 | 0.087 | 13752 | 91344460 | 0.41 | China

35 | 2028-04-09 | 14h 23m - 14h 37m | UTUCAC4 548-032524  | 0.85  | 12.1 | 11.53 | 0.011 | 0.088 | 13915 | 93259313 | 0.40 | China

36 | 2028-04-11 | 23h 24m - 23h 36m | UTUCAC4 548-034607  | 1.20  | 14.0 | 13.51 | 0.011 | 0.088 | 14011 | 94321458 | 0.40 | South America

37 | 2028-04-12 | 03h 01m - 03h 16m | UTUCAC4 548-034711  | 0.95  | 13.2 | 12.49 | 0.011 | 0.088 | 14017 | 94396256 | 0.40 | USA

38 | 2028-04-13 | 14h 54m - 15h 07m | UTUCAC4 548-035859  | 1.10  | 12.4 | 11.82 | 0.011 | 0.088 | 14078 | 95039527 | 0.39 | China

39 | 2028-04-17 | 09h 30m - 09h 41m | UTUCAC4 548-038178  | 1.00  | 13.2 | 12.71 | 0.011 | 0.089 | 14233 | 96610305 | 0.39 | AUS

40 | 2028-04-19 | 03h 34m - 03h 47m | UTUCAC4 548-039037  | 1.00  | 12.7 | 11.92 | 0.010 | 0.089 | 14305 | 97298455 | 0.39 | USA

41 | 2028-04-21 | 10h 49m - 11h 02m | UTUCAC4 548-040000  | 1.00  | 11.7 | 10.92 | 0.010 | 0.089 | 14399 | 98151163 | 0.38 | Japan

42 | 2028-04-23 | 11h 59m - 12h 12m | UTUCAC4 548-040752  | 0.95  | 12.9 | 12.51 | 0.010 | 0.089 | 14480 | 98884193 | 0.38 | AUS

43 | 2028-04-26 | 11h 01m - 11h 12m | UTTYC 1369-00345-1    | 0.95  | 12.3 | 12.05 | 0.010 | 0.090 | 14592 | 99856579 | 0.38 | AUS

44 | 2028-04-28 | 04h 19m - 04h 31m | UTUCAC4 547-041893  | 0.80  | 12.5 | 12.11 | 0.010 | 0.090 | 14653 | 100380171 | 0.37 | USA

45 | 2028-05-20 | 02h 42m - 02h 55m | UTUCAC4 538-048196  | 1.30  | 12.8 | 12.20 | 0.020 | 0.044 | 15062 | 104164997 | 0.36 | USA

46 | 2028-07-08 | 23h 02m - 23h 21m | UTUCAC4 498-057746  | 1.25  | 12.2 | 11.44 | 0.026 | 0.049 | 11365 | 87754111 | 0.43 | South America

47 | 2028-11-07 | 10h 14m - 10h 47m | UTUCAC4 469-043431  | 0.85  | 12.3 | 11.72 | 0.047 | 0.061 | 6418   | 61843760 | 0.61 | USA

48 | 2028-11-26 | 23h 32m - 23h 57m | UTTYC 4921-00526-1    | 1.05  | 10.5 | 10.06 | 0.041 | 0.055 | 7403   | 64177487 | 0.58 | Mid Asia

49 | 2028-11-27 | 01h 40m - 02h 01m | UTUCAC4 441-053269  | 1.10  | 12.9 | 12.40 | 0.041 | 0.055 | 7404   | 64177487 | 0.58 | Africa

50 | 2028-11-28 | 08h 54m - 09h 20m | UTUCAC4 439-052412  | 0.95  | 11.4 | 10.76 | 0.040 | 0.054 | 7417   | 64132607 | 0.58 | South America

51 | 2028-12-07 | 22h 19m - 22h 46m | UTUCAC4 425-055405  | 1.05  | 13.2 | 12.20 | 0.041 | 0.054 | 7363   | 63205100 | 0.59 | Mid Asia

52 | 2028-12-13 | 00h 55m - 01h 22m | UTUCAC4 418-054653  | 0.90  | 13.1 | 12.43 | 0.042 | 0.054 | 7218   | 62232714 | 0.60 | Africa

53 | 2028-12-22 | 03h 58m - 04h 20m | UTTYC 5518-00851-1    | 1.10  | 10.9 | 10.56 | 0.044 | 0.055 | 6797   | 59764349 | 0.63 | EU

54 | 2029-01-06 | 20h 54m - 21h 27m | UTUCAC4 383-062610  | 1.00  | 12.3 | 11.79 | 0.052 | 0.058 | 5809   | 53675716 | 0.70 | China

55 | 2029-01-09 | 23h 31m - 24h 04m | UTUCAC4 378-064946  | 0.95  | 12.5 | 11.97 | 0.054 | 0.059 | 5571   | 52239576 | 0.72 | Africa

56 | 2029-01-13 | 05h 45m - 06h 15m | UTUCAC4 374-063757  | 1.15  | 13.7 | 13.12 | 0.057 | 0.060 | 5309   | 50653839 | 0.74 | South America

57 | 2029-01-14 | 00h 15m - 00h 51m | UTUCAC4 373-065145  | 1.00  | 13.8 | 13.32 | 0.057 | 0.060 | 5245   | 50279844 | 0.75 | Africa

58 | 2029-01-19 | 23h 16m - 23h 56m | UTUCAC4 365-062656  | 1.00  | 12.7 | 12.24 | 0.063 | 0.063 | 4746   | 47198128 | 0.79 | Africa

59 | 2029-01-26 | 23h 19m - 24h 10m | UTUCAC4 356-066008  | 1.10  | 12.7 | 12.22 | 0.072 | 0.066 | 4161   | 43368423 | 0.86 | Africa

60 | 2029-01-27 | 00h 56m - 01h 40m | UTTYC 6115-00954-1    | 0.95  | 10.8 | 10.01 | 0.072 | 0.066 | 4155   | 43338503 | 0.87 | EU 

Past occultation observations of Apophis

Apophis' occultation has been observed several times in the past. Since Apophis is a small asteroid (about 300 meters in diameter), the longest it can obscure a star was only about 0.1 seconds. Measuring such a brief phenomenon is difficult. Nevertheless, the path through which Apophis's shadow passes was definitely determined based on several positive detections reported by observers.

past.obs.en.jpg
Apophis.past.en1.jpg
Apophis.past.en2.jpg
Apophis.past.en3.jpg

What is known about Apophis from previous observations?

In spring 2021, Apophis brightened to 15 mag, prompting various observations. Photometric observations revealed that Apophis has a long rotation period of 30.55 hours and significant light variation of 0.77 magnitude, suggesting that it is an elongated object. Spectroscopic observations indicate that Apophis resembles an Sq-type asteroid. Thermal infrared and visible light observations suggest that Apophis has an albedo of 0.44 and an estimated diameter of approximately 300 meters. Radar observations estimated its size to be approximately 240 by 460 meters.

Apophis.en.jpg

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